Kai Kamaka III vs Luke Riley: Result and Prediction
UFC 329: Mcgregor vs. Holloway 2 · July 11, 2026
Result
Luke Riley defeated Kai Kamaka III by KO/TKO in round 1 (3:03) at UFC 329: Mcgregor vs. Holloway 2 on July 11, 2026.
The FIGHT//AI model had Luke Riley as the favourite at 64%, so the result went with the model.
Model prediction
The FIGHT//AI headline probability gave Luke Riley a 64% chance to beat Kai Kamaka III (Kai Kamaka III 36%).
The betting market prices Kai Kamaka III at 33% (+191) and Luke Riley at 67% (-245), with the bookmaker margin removed.
Riley's knockout power and defensive prowess clash with Kamaka's relentless cardio, setting the stage for a potential finish amid contrasting styles.
How the model expected it to end
Method of victory, either fighter: KO/TKO 55%, decision 44%, submission 1%. The most likely way this 3-round featherweight fight ends is by KO/TKO.
Fight length: goes the distance 44%.
Key factors
- Riley's knockout threat
- Kamaka's elite cardio
- Defensive edge for Riley
Tale of the tape
| Kai Kamaka III | Luke Riley | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-1 | 3-0 |
| Age | 31 | 27 |
| Height | 5'7" (170 cm) | 5'9" (175 cm) |
| UFC fights | 2 | 3 |
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