Manoel Sousa vs Bolaji Oki: Result and Prediction
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos · March 14, 2026
Result
Manoel Sousa defeated Bolaji Oki by KO/TKO in round 3 (4:12) at UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos on March 14, 2026.
The FIGHT//AI model had Manoel Sousa as the favourite at 54%, so the result went with the model.
Model prediction
The FIGHT//AI headline probability gave Manoel Sousa a 54% chance to beat Bolaji Oki (Bolaji Oki 46%).
The betting market prices Manoel Sousa at 70% (-272) and Bolaji Oki at 30% (+219), with the bookmaker margin removed.
Our model is more positive on Bolaji Oki than the bookmakers: 42% for Manoel Sousa against the market's 70%. A gap like this is where value bets come from.
Oki's high strike output and solid cardio clash with Sousa's balanced approach, setting the stage for a potential battle of attrition where experience could tip the scales in a close fight.
How the model expected it to end
Method of victory, either fighter: decision 59%, KO/TKO 23%, submission 18%. The most likely way this 3-round lightweight fight ends is on the scorecards.
Fight length: goes the distance 59%.
Key factors
- Oki striking volume advantage
- Oki grappling control edge
- Oki cardio strength late
Tale of the tape
| Manoel Sousa | Bolaji Oki | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-0 | 2-3 |
| Age | 29 | 31 |
| Height | 5'9" (175 cm) | 5'10" (178 cm) |
| UFC fights | 2 | 5 |
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