Kamaru Usman vs Dricus Du Plessis: Result and Prediction
UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman · July 18, 2026
Result
Dricus Du Plessis defeated Kamaru Usman by Decision in round 5 at UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman on July 18, 2026.
The FIGHT//AI model had Dricus Du Plessis as the favourite at 61%, so the result went with the model.
Model prediction
The FIGHT//AI headline probability gave Dricus Du Plessis a 61% chance to beat Kamaru Usman (Kamaru Usman 39%).
The betting market prices Kamaru Usman at 32% (+192) and Dricus Du Plessis at 68% (-248), with the bookmaker margin removed.
Our model is more positive on Kamaru Usman than the bookmakers: 41% for Kamaru Usman against the market's 32%. A gap like this is where value bets come from.
As Usman looks to leverage his grappling experience against Du Plessis, who’s riding a wave of momentum, this clash might showcase whether age and skill can outlast youthful tenacity.
How the model expected it to end
Method of victory, either fighter: decision 53%, KO/TKO 32%, submission 15%. The most likely way this 5-round middleweight fight ends is on the scorecards.
Fight length: goes the distance 53%, over 1.5 rounds 83%, over 2.5 rounds 69%.
Key factors
- Usman experience advantage in fight IQ
- Usman grappling control could dominate
- Du Plessis recent momentum boost
Tale of the tape
| Kamaru Usman | Dricus Du Plessis | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 16-4 | 10-1 |
| Age | 39 | 33 |
| Height | 6'0" (183 cm) | 6'1" (185 cm) |
| Reach | – | 76" (193 cm) |
| Stance | – | Southpaw |
| UFC fights | 20 | 11 |
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