Mike Davis vs Nurullo Aliev: Result and Prediction
UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov · July 25, 2026
Result
Nurullo Aliev defeated Mike Davis by Decision in round 3 at UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov on July 25, 2026.
The FIGHT//AI model had Nurullo Aliev as the favourite at 61%, so the result went with the model.
Model prediction
The FIGHT//AI headline probability gave Nurullo Aliev a 61% chance to beat Mike Davis (Mike Davis 39%).
The betting market prices Mike Davis at 34% (+178) and Nurullo Aliev at 66% (-228), with the bookmaker margin removed.
Our model is more positive on Mike Davis than the bookmakers: 42% for Mike Davis against the market's 34%. A gap like this is where value bets come from.
With Davis packing a striking volume punch and Aliev riding a confidence-boosting winning streak, this clash promises a captivating showdown of precision versus momentum.
How the model expected it to end
Method of victory, either fighter: decision 59%, KO/TKO 25%, submission 17%. The most likely way this 3-round lightweight fight ends is on the scorecards.
Fight length: goes the distance 59%, over 1.5 rounds 87%, over 2.5 rounds 77%.
Key factors
- Davis striking volume advantage
- Aliev grappling control edge
- Aliev's recent momentum boost
Tale of the tape
| Mike Davis | Nurullo Aliev | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 5-3 | 4-0 |
| Age | 33 | 26 |
| Height | 6'0" (183 cm) | 5'10" (178 cm) |
| UFC fights | 8 | 4 |
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