Jeisla Chaves vs Carli Judice: Result and Prediction
UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues · August 22, 2026
Result
Carli Judice defeated Jeisla Chaves by KO/TKO in round 1 (1:39) at UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues on August 22, 2026.
The FIGHT//AI model had Carli Judice as the favourite at 68%, so the result went with the model.
Model prediction
The FIGHT//AI headline probability gave Carli Judice a 68% chance to beat Jeisla Chaves (Jeisla Chaves 32%).
The betting market prices Jeisla Chaves at 19% (+386) and Carli Judice at 81% (-588), with the bookmaker margin removed.
Our model is more positive on Jeisla Chaves than the bookmakers: 55% for Jeisla Chaves against the market's 19%. A gap like this is where value bets come from.
Chaves' elite striking power and defensive skills clash with Judice's relentless pressure and cardio, setting the stage for a potential knockout finish.
How the model expected it to end
Method of victory, either fighter: KO/TKO 54%, decision 44%, submission 2%. The most likely way this 3-round women's strawweight fight ends is by KO/TKO.
Fight length: goes the distance 44%.
Key factors
- Chaves' elite striking power
- Judice's cardio advantage
- Recent winning streak for Judice
Tale of the tape
| Jeisla Chaves | Carli Judice | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-1 | 4-1 |
| Age | 30 | 28 |
| Height | 5'6" (168 cm) | 5'7" (170 cm) |
| UFC fights | 2 | 5 |
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