Chase Hooper vs Lance Gibson Jr: Result and Prediction
UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer · March 28, 2026
Model prediction
The FIGHT//AI headline probability gave Chase Hooper a 68% chance to beat Lance Gibson Jr (Lance Gibson Jr 32%).
The betting market prices Chase Hooper at 73% (-332) and Lance Gibson Jr at 27% (+248), with the bookmaker margin removed.
Our model is more positive on Lance Gibson Jr than the bookmakers: 60% for Chase Hooper against the market's 73%. A gap like this is where value bets come from.
In a clash of styles, Hooper's grappling prowess meets Gibson's knockout power, making for a potentially explosive encounter with high finish rates on both sides.
How the model expected it to end
Method of victory, either fighter: submission 44%, decision 30%, KO/TKO 26%. The most likely way this 3-round lightweight fight ends is by submission.
Fight length: goes the distance 30%.
Key factors
- Hooper's grappling advantage
- Gibson's striking power
- Hooper's submission threat
Tale of the tape
| Chase Hooper | Lance Gibson Jr | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 9-5 | 9-2 |
| Age | 27 | 31 |
| Height | 6'1" (185 cm) | 5'10" (178 cm) |
| UFC fights | 14 | 11 |
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