Dione Barbosa vs Anna Melisano: Result and Prediction
UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman · July 18, 2026
Result
Dione Barbosa defeated Anna Melisano by Submission in round 1 (4:04) at UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman on July 18, 2026.
The FIGHT//AI model had Dione Barbosa as the favourite at 74%, so the result went with the model.
Model prediction
The FIGHT//AI headline probability gave Dione Barbosa a 74% chance to beat Anna Melisano (Anna Melisano 26%).
The betting market prices Dione Barbosa at 82% (-631) and Anna Melisano at 18% (+412), with the bookmaker margin removed.
Our model is more positive on Anna Melisano than the bookmakers: 67% for Dione Barbosa against the market's 82%. A gap like this is where value bets come from.
Barbosa's grappling prowess and recent form may exploit Melisano's inexperience, while both fighters' striking styles could lead to an explosive finish.
How the model expected it to end
Method of victory, either fighter: decision 44%, KO/TKO 35%, submission 21%. The most likely way this 3-round women's flyweight fight ends is on the scorecards.
Fight length: goes the distance 44%.
Key factors
- Barbosa's grappling control
- Melisano's striking volume
- Recent form favors Barbosa
Tale of the tape
| Dione Barbosa | Anna Melisano | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 4-2 | 0-1 |
| Age | 34 | 29 |
| Height | 5'6" (168 cm) | 5'6" (168 cm) |
| UFC fights | 6 | 1 |
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