Ryan Spann vs Mario Pinto: Result and Prediction
UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Parnasse · September 5, 2026
Result
Mario Pinto defeated Ryan Spann by KO/TKO in round 2 (0:55) at UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Parnasse on September 5, 2026.
The FIGHT//AI model had Mario Pinto as the favourite at 67%, so the result went with the model.
Model prediction
The FIGHT//AI headline probability gave Mario Pinto a 67% chance to beat Ryan Spann (Ryan Spann 33%).
The betting market prices Ryan Spann at 29% (+226) and Mario Pinto at 71% (-307), with the bookmaker margin removed.
Our model is more positive on Ryan Spann than the bookmakers: 35% for Ryan Spann against the market's 29%. A gap like this is where value bets come from.
With Spann's UFC experience clashing against Pinto's momentum and grappling expertise, this bout could pivot on whether Spann can withstand Pinto's pressure or if he can outlast him.
How the model expected it to end
Method of victory, either fighter: decision 41%, KO/TKO 38%, submission 20%. The most likely way this 3-round heavyweight fight ends is on the scorecards.
Fight length: goes the distance 41%, over 1.5 rounds 73%, over 2.5 rounds 59%.
Key factors
- Spann's experience in high-pressure moments
- Pinto's strong defensive capabilities
- Pinto's grappling advantage on the mat
Tale of the tape
| Ryan Spann | Mario Pinto | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 10-7 | 4-0 |
| Age | 35 | 28 |
| Height | 6'5" (196 cm) | 6'5" (196 cm) |
| UFC fights | 17 | 4 |
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