Mike Malott vs Gilbert Burns: Result and Prediction

UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Malott · April 18, 2026

Result

Mike Malott defeated Gilbert Burns by KO/TKO in round 3 (2:08) at UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Malott on April 18, 2026.

The FIGHT//AI model had Mike Malott as the favourite at 63%, so the result went with the model.

Model prediction

The FIGHT//AI headline probability gave Mike Malott a 63% chance to beat Gilbert Burns (Gilbert Burns 37%).

The betting market prices Mike Malott at 73% (-323) and Gilbert Burns at 27% (+253), with the bookmaker margin removed.

Our model is more positive on Gilbert Burns than the bookmakers: 57% for Mike Malott against the market's 73%. A gap like this is where value bets come from.

Malott's striking power and defensive prowess could exploit Burns' recent decline, while Burns' grappling skills may be the key to turning the tide in this matchup.

How the model expected it to end

Method of victory, either fighter: decision 47%, KO/TKO 29%, submission 24%. The most likely way this 5-round welterweight fight ends is on the scorecards.

Fight length: goes the distance 47%, over 1.5 rounds 82%, over 2.5 rounds 72%.

Key factors

• Malott's striking power
• Burns' grappling control
• Malott's recent form

Tale of the tape

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