Hector Santiago vs Lawrence Lui: Result and Prediction
UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song · August 29, 2026
Result
Hector Santiago defeated Lawrence Lui by KO/TKO in round 2 (0:53) at UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song on August 29, 2026.
The FIGHT//AI model had Hector Santiago at only 33%, so this was an upset against the model.
Model prediction
The FIGHT//AI headline probability gave Lawrence Lui a 67% chance to beat Hector Santiago (Hector Santiago 33%).
The betting market prices Hector Santiago at 27% (+251) and Lawrence Lui at 73% (-341), with the bookmaker margin removed.
Our model is more positive on Hector Santiago than the bookmakers: 40% for Hector Santiago against the market's 27%. A gap like this is where value bets come from.
Santiago's five-fight skid meets Lui's elite striking and grappling, likely leading to a decisive finish for Lui on fight night.
How the model expected it to end
Method of victory, either fighter: KO/TKO 54%, decision 44%, submission 2%. The most likely way this 3-round bantamweight fight ends is by KO/TKO.
Fight length: goes the distance 44%.
Key factors
- Lui's elite striking
- Santiago's recent struggles
- Lui's grappling advantage
Tale of the tape
| Hector Santiago | Lawrence Lui | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-0 | 1-1 |
| Age | 34 | 30 |
| Height | 5'4" (163 cm) | 5'8" (173 cm) |
| UFC fights | 1 | 2 |
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