Harry Hardwick vs Marwan Rahiki: Result and Prediction
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos · March 14, 2026
Result
Marwan Rahiki defeated Harry Hardwick by KO/TKO in round 2 (5:00) at UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos on March 14, 2026.
The FIGHT//AI model had Marwan Rahiki as the favourite at 61%, so the result went with the model.
Model prediction
The FIGHT//AI headline probability gave Marwan Rahiki a 61% chance to beat Harry Hardwick (Harry Hardwick 39%).
The betting market prices Harry Hardwick at 31% (+211) and Marwan Rahiki at 69% (-266), with the bookmaker margin removed.
Our model is more positive on Harry Hardwick than the bookmakers: 42% for Harry Hardwick against the market's 31%. A gap like this is where value bets come from.
With Hardwick looking to bounce back from an early career loss against the debuting Rahiki, both fighters need a strong performance to establish themselves, especially with Hardwick’s chin vulnerabilities at play.
How the model expected it to end
Method of victory, either fighter: decision 57%, KO/TKO 26%, submission 17%. The most likely way this 3-round featherweight fight ends is on the scorecards.
Fight length: goes the distance 57%.
Key factors
- Hardwick takedown pressure advantage
- Hardwick cardio edge late in fight
- Hardwick striking power advantage
Tale of the tape
| Harry Hardwick | Marwan Rahiki | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-2 | 2-1 |
| Age | 32 | 24 |
| Height | 5'10" (178 cm) | 5'10" (178 cm) |
| UFC fights | 2 | 3 |
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