Juan Diaz vs Malcolm Wellmaker: Result and Prediction
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa · May 16, 2026
Result
Juan Diaz defeated Malcolm Wellmaker by Submission in round 2 (4:08) at UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa on May 16, 2026.
The FIGHT//AI model had Juan Diaz at only 36%, so this was an upset against the model.
Model prediction
The FIGHT//AI headline probability gave Malcolm Wellmaker a 64% chance to beat Juan Diaz (Juan Diaz 36%).
The betting market prices Juan Diaz at 30% (+210) and Malcolm Wellmaker at 70% (-280), with the bookmaker margin removed.
Our model is more positive on Juan Diaz than the bookmakers: 41% for Juan Diaz against the market's 30%. A gap like this is where value bets come from.
Wellmaker's striking power and defensive skills could exploit Diaz's recent struggles, making this a compelling clash of styles with potential for a decisive finish.
How the model expected it to end
Method of victory, either fighter: KO/TKO 41%, decision 39%, submission 20%. The most likely way this 3-round bantamweight fight ends is by KO/TKO.
Fight length: goes the distance 39%, over 1.5 rounds 78%, over 2.5 rounds 66%.
Key factors
- Wellmaker's striking power
- Diaz's cardio advantage
- Defensive skills favor Wellmaker
Tale of the tape
| Juan Diaz | Malcolm Wellmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-0 | 2-2 |
| Age | 28 | 32 |
| Height | 5'8" (173 cm) | 5'9" (175 cm) |
| UFC fights | 1 | 4 |
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