Raoni Barcelos vs Montel Jackson: Result and Prediction
UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal · April 25, 2026
Result
Raoni Barcelos defeated Montel Jackson by Decision - Split in round 3 (5:00) at UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal on April 25, 2026.
The FIGHT//AI model had Raoni Barcelos at only 37%, so this was an upset against the model.
Model prediction
The FIGHT//AI headline probability gave Montel Jackson a 63% chance to beat Raoni Barcelos (Raoni Barcelos 37%).
The betting market prices Raoni Barcelos at 38% (+151) and Montel Jackson at 62% (-186), with the bookmaker margin removed.
In a clash of styles, Barcelos's elite cardio and grappling may counter Jackson's knockout power, making for a compelling showdown of endurance versus finishing ability.
How the model expected it to end
Method of victory, either fighter: decision 55%, KO/TKO 29%, submission 16%. The most likely way this 3-round bantamweight fight ends is on the scorecards.
Fight length: goes the distance 55%, over 1.5 rounds 85%, over 2.5 rounds 73%.
Key factors
- Barcelos's elite cardio
- Jackson's knockout threat
- Grappling edge for Barcelos
Tale of the tape
| Raoni Barcelos | Montel Jackson | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 11-4 | 9-4 |
| Age | 39 | 34 |
| Height | 5'7" (170 cm) | 5'10" (178 cm) |
| UFC fights | 15 | 13 |
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