Carlston Harris vs Jake Matthews: Result and Prediction
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Figueiredo · May 30, 2026
Result
Jake Matthews defeated Carlston Harris by Decision - Unanimous in round 3 (05:00:00) at UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Figueiredo on May 30, 2026.
The FIGHT//AI model had Jake Matthews as the favourite at 68%, so the result went with the model.
Model prediction
The FIGHT//AI headline probability gave Jake Matthews a 68% chance to beat Carlston Harris (Carlston Harris 32%).
The betting market prices Carlston Harris at 25% (+286) and Jake Matthews at 75% (-357), with the bookmaker margin removed.
Our model is more positive on Carlston Harris than the bookmakers: 35% for Carlston Harris against the market's 25%. A gap like this is where value bets come from.
With Matthews' experience and recent momentum against the less-tested Harris, this showdown could highlight a grappling mismatch and showcase the former's polished striking under pressure.
How the model expected it to end
Method of victory, either fighter: decision 46%, submission 30%, KO/TKO 24%. The most likely way this 3-round welterweight fight ends is on the scorecards.
Fight length: goes the distance 46%, over 1.5 rounds 77%, over 2.5 rounds 65%.
Key factors
- Matthews experience in high-pressure fights
- Matthews recent momentum over Harris
- Matthews grappling edge can dictate pace
Tale of the tape
| Carlston Harris | Jake Matthews | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 4-4 | 16-8 |
| Age | 39 | 32 |
| Height | 6'0" (183 cm) | 5'11" (180 cm) |
| UFC fights | 8 | 24 |
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