Joe Pyfer vs Israel Adesanya: Result and Prediction
UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer · March 28, 2026
Result
Joe Pyfer defeated Israel Adesanya by KO/TKO in round 2 (4:18) at UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer on March 28, 2026.
The FIGHT//AI model had Joe Pyfer at only 44%, so this was an upset against the model.
Model prediction
The FIGHT//AI headline probability gave Israel Adesanya a 56% chance to beat Joe Pyfer (Joe Pyfer 44%).
The betting market prices Joe Pyfer at 44% (+118) and Israel Adesanya at 56% (-144), with the bookmaker margin removed.
Adesanya's elite defense and striking precision may exploit Pyfer's chin issues, while both fighters' recent trajectories set up a compelling clash of styles.
How the model expected it to end
Method of victory, either fighter: decision 46%, KO/TKO 37%, submission 17%. The most likely way this 5-round middleweight fight ends is on the scorecards.
Fight length: goes the distance 46%, over 1.5 rounds 76%, over 2.5 rounds 61%.
Key factors
- Adesanya's elite defense
- Pyfer's rising momentum
- Striking power edge
Tale of the tape
| Joe Pyfer | Israel Adesanya | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 7-1 | 13-6 |
| Age | 30 | 37 |
| Height | 6'1" (185 cm) | 6'4" (193 cm) |
| UFC fights | 8 | 19 |
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