Alexandre Pantoja vs Joshua Van: Result and Prediction
UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2 · September 19, 2026
Result
Joshua Van defeated Alexandre Pantoja by Decision - Unanimous in round 5 (5:00) at UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2 on September 19, 2026.
The FIGHT//AI model had Joshua Van as the favourite at 64%, so the result went with the model.
Model prediction
The FIGHT//AI headline probability gave Joshua Van a 64% chance to beat Alexandre Pantoja (Alexandre Pantoja 36%).
The betting market prices Alexandre Pantoja at 45% (+114) and Joshua Van at 55% (-139), with the bookmaker margin removed.
Our model is more positive on Joshua Van than the bookmakers: 34% for Alexandre Pantoja against the market's 45%. A gap like this is where value bets come from.
With Pantoja's grappling prowess clashing against Van's striking volume and momentum from a winning streak, this fight could showcase a thrilling battle of adjustments and heart under pressure.
How the model expected it to end
Method of victory, either fighter: decision 52%, KO/TKO 31%, submission 18%. The most likely way this 5-round flyweight fight ends is on the scorecards.
Fight length: goes the distance 52%, over 1.5 rounds 88%, over 2.5 rounds 77%.
Key factors
- Van striking volume advantage
- Pantoja grappling control edge
- Van cardio superiority late
Tale of the tape
| Alexandre Pantoja | Joshua Van | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 14-5 | 11-1 |
| Age | 36 | 25 |
| Height | 5'5" (165 cm) | 5'5" (165 cm) |
| UFC fights | 19 | 12 |
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