Felipe Lima vs Morgan Charriere: Result and Prediction
UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Parnasse · September 5, 2026
Result
Felipe Lima defeated Morgan Charriere by Decision - Unanimous in round 3 (5:00) at UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Parnasse on September 5, 2026.
The FIGHT//AI model had Felipe Lima as the favourite at 59%, so the result went with the model.
Model prediction
The FIGHT//AI headline probability gave Felipe Lima a 59% chance to beat Morgan Charriere (Morgan Charriere 41%).
The betting market prices Felipe Lima at 63% (-195) and Morgan Charriere at 37% (+154), with the bookmaker margin removed.
Our model is more positive on Morgan Charriere than the bookmakers: 55% for Felipe Lima against the market's 63%. A gap like this is where value bets come from.
With Lima riding a wave of recent momentum against Charriere's superior striking volume and grappling, this clash is set for a battle of confidence versus experience that promises fireworks.
How the model expected it to end
Method of victory, either fighter: decision 47%, KO/TKO 32%, submission 20%. The most likely way this 3-round featherweight fight ends is on the scorecards.
Fight length: goes the distance 47%, over 1.5 rounds 83%, over 2.5 rounds 70%.
Key factors
- Lima momentum from recent fights
- Charriere striking volume advantage
- Charriere grappling control potential
Tale of the tape
| Felipe Lima | Morgan Charriere | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 3-1 | 3-4 |
| Age | 28 | 31 |
| Height | 5'6" (168 cm) | 5'8" (173 cm) |
| UFC fights | 4 | 7 |
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