Diyar Nurgozhay vs Rafael Tobias: Result and Prediction

UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2 · March 7, 2026

Result

Diyar Nurgozhay defeated Rafael Tobias by Decision - Unanimous in round 3 (5:00) at UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2 on March 7, 2026.

The FIGHT//AI model had Diyar Nurgozhay as the favourite at 51%, so the result went with the model.

Model prediction

The FIGHT//AI headline probability gave Diyar Nurgozhay a 51% chance to beat Rafael Tobias (Rafael Tobias 49%).

With both fighters struggling for their first win, Nurgozhay's grappling-heavy style goes up against Tobias' striking edge, making this a must-win clash for pride and momentum.

How the model expected it to end

Method of victory, either fighter: decision 56%, KO/TKO 23%, submission 20%. The most likely way this 3-round light heavyweight fight ends is on the scorecards.

Fight length: goes the distance 56%.

Tale of the tape

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