Luis Gurule vs Daniel Barez: Result and Prediction
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa · May 16, 2026
Result
Luis Gurule defeated Daniel Barez by Decision - Unanimous in round 3 (5:00) at UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa on May 16, 2026.
The FIGHT//AI model had Luis Gurule as the favourite at 52%, so the result went with the model.
Model prediction
The FIGHT//AI headline probability gave Luis Gurule a 52% chance to beat Daniel Barez (Daniel Barez 48%).
The betting market prices Luis Gurule at 57% (-151) and Daniel Barez at 43% (+122), with the bookmaker margin removed.
Our model is more positive on Daniel Barez than the bookmakers: 48% for Luis Gurule against the market's 57%. A gap like this is where value bets come from.
Barez's striking finesse and cardio could exploit Gurule's defensive gaps, while Gurule's grappling may be his only path to victory amid a tough streak.
How the model expected it to end
Method of victory, either fighter: decision 59%, KO/TKO 23%, submission 18%. The most likely way this 3-round flyweight fight ends is on the scorecards.
Fight length: goes the distance 59%, over 1.5 rounds 87%, over 2.5 rounds 77%.
Key factors
- Barez's striking edge
- Gurule's grappling potential
- Barez's cardio advantage
Tale of the tape
| Luis Gurule | Daniel Barez | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-4 | 1-3 |
| Age | 33 | 38 |
| Height | 5'5" (165 cm) | 5'6" (168 cm) |
| UFC fights | 5 | 4 |
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