Mauricio Ruffy vs Arman Tsarukyan: Result and Prediction
UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2 · September 19, 2026
Result
Arman Tsarukyan defeated Mauricio Ruffy by KO/TKO in round 1 (4:56) at UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2 on September 19, 2026.
The FIGHT//AI model had Arman Tsarukyan as the favourite at 71%, so the result went with the model.
Model prediction
The FIGHT//AI headline probability gave Arman Tsarukyan a 71% chance to beat Mauricio Ruffy (Mauricio Ruffy 29%).
The betting market prices Mauricio Ruffy at 27% (+248) and Arman Tsarukyan at 73% (-329), with the bookmaker margin removed.
With Tsarukyan riding a wave of momentum from his recent wins and armed with elite grappling skills, Ruffy will need more than just striking volume to pull off the upset.
How the model expected it to end
Method of victory, either fighter: decision 45%, KO/TKO 44%, submission 11%. The most likely way this 5-round lightweight fight ends is on the scorecards.
Fight length: goes the distance 45%, over 1.5 rounds 81%, over 2.5 rounds 70%.
Key factors
- Tsarukyan grappling control advantage
- Tsarukyan striking power edge
- Ruffy slight striking volume advantage
Tale of the tape
| Mauricio Ruffy | Arman Tsarukyan | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 5-2 | 11-2 |
| Age | 33 | 30 |
| Height | 5'11" (180 cm) | 5'7" (170 cm) |
| UFC fights | 7 | 13 |
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