Ivan Erslan vs Tuco Tokkos: Result and Prediction
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa · May 16, 2026
Result
Ivan Erslan defeated Tuco Tokkos by Decision - Unanimous in round 3 (5:00) at UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa on May 16, 2026.
The FIGHT//AI model had Ivan Erslan at only 48%, so this was an upset against the model.
Model prediction
The FIGHT//AI headline probability gave Tuco Tokkos a 52% chance to beat Ivan Erslan (Ivan Erslan 48%).
The betting market prices Ivan Erslan at 60% (-144) and Tuco Tokkos at 40% (+150), with the bookmaker margin removed.
Our model is more positive on Tuco Tokkos than the bookmakers: 41% for Ivan Erslan against the market's 60%. A gap like this is where value bets come from.
With Erslan's grappling limitations and Tokkos' submission threat, expect Tokkos to capitalize on the ground, potentially finishing the fight early.
How the model expected it to end
Method of victory, either fighter: decision 55%, submission 25%, KO/TKO 20%. The most likely way this 3-round light heavyweight fight ends is on the scorecards.
Fight length: goes the distance 55%, over 1.5 rounds 81%, over 2.5 rounds 71%.
Key factors
- Tokkos' grappling advantage
- Erslan's recent struggles
- Submission threat from Tokkos
Tale of the tape
| Ivan Erslan | Tuco Tokkos | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-3 | 1-3 |
| Age | 35 | – |
| Height | 6'2" (188 cm) | – |
| UFC fights | 4 | 4 |
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