Montserrat Rendon vs Bia Mesquita: Result and Prediction
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos · March 14, 2026
Result
Bia Mesquita defeated Montserrat Rendon by Submission in round 1 (2:07) at UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos on March 14, 2026.
The FIGHT//AI model had Bia Mesquita as the favourite at 66%, so the result went with the model.
Model prediction
The FIGHT//AI headline probability gave Bia Mesquita a 66% chance to beat Montserrat Rendon (Montserrat Rendon 34%).
The betting market prices Montserrat Rendon at 16% (+488) and Bia Mesquita at 84% (-696), with the bookmaker margin removed.
Our model is more positive on Montserrat Rendon than the bookmakers: 41% for Montserrat Rendon against the market's 16%. A gap like this is where value bets come from.
With Rendon returning after a lengthy layoff and Mesquita riding momentum from her debut win, this matchup will test Rendon's striking defense against Mesquita's grappling prowess.
How the model expected it to end
Method of victory, either fighter: decision 53%, submission 24%, KO/TKO 23%. The most likely way this 3-round women's bantamweight fight ends is on the scorecards.
Fight length: goes the distance 53%.
Key factors
- Mesquita striking volume advantage
- Rendon grappling control potential
- Mesquita defensive edge
Tale of the tape
| Montserrat Rendon | Bia Mesquita | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-1 | 3-0 |
| Age | 37 | 36 |
| Height | 5'8" (173 cm) | – |
| UFC fights | 2 | 3 |
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