Yaroslav Amosov vs Joel Alvarez: Result and Prediction
UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland · May 9, 2026
Result
Yaroslav Amosov defeated Joel Alvarez by Submission in round 2 (1:13) at UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland on May 9, 2026.
The FIGHT//AI model had Yaroslav Amosov as the favourite at 59%, so the result went with the model.
Model prediction
The FIGHT//AI headline probability gave Yaroslav Amosov a 59% chance to beat Joel Alvarez (Joel Alvarez 41%).
The betting market prices Yaroslav Amosov at 62% (-192) and Joel Alvarez at 38% (+153), with the bookmaker margin removed.
Our model is more positive on Joel Alvarez than the bookmakers: 55% for Yaroslav Amosov against the market's 62%. A gap like this is where value bets come from.
Amosov's grappling prowess clashes with Alvarez's striking power, setting the stage for a tactical battle that could end in a finish given their respective rates.
How the model expected it to end
Method of victory, either fighter: decision 40%, KO/TKO 34%, submission 26%. The most likely way this 3-round welterweight fight ends is on the scorecards.
Fight length: goes the distance 40%.
Key factors
- Amosov's elite grappling
- Alvarez's KO power
- Recent win streak for Alvarez
Tale of the tape
| Yaroslav Amosov | Joel Alvarez | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-0 | 8-4 |
| Age | 33 | 34 |
| Height | 5'11" (180 cm) | 6'2" (188 cm) |
| UFC fights | 2 | 12 |
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