Max Holloway vs Conor McGregor: Result and Prediction
UFC 329: Mcgregor vs. Holloway 2 · July 11, 2026
Result
Max Holloway defeated Conor McGregor by KO/TKO in round 1 (1:09) at UFC 329: Mcgregor vs. Holloway 2 on July 11, 2026.
The FIGHT//AI model had Max Holloway as the favourite at 59%, so the result went with the model.
Model prediction
The FIGHT//AI headline probability gave Max Holloway a 59% chance to beat Conor McGregor (Conor McGregor 41%).
The betting market prices Max Holloway at 66% (-233) and Conor McGregor at 34% (+183), with the bookmaker margin removed.
Our model is more positive on Conor McGregor than the bookmakers: 55% for Max Holloway against the market's 66%. A gap like this is where value bets come from.
In a clash of striking volume versus knockout power, Holloway’s relentless pace and defensive chops could wear down McGregor, who must capitalize early before cardio becomes a factor.
How the model expected it to end
Method of victory, either fighter: KO/TKO 48%, decision 39%, submission 13%. The most likely way this 5-round welterweight fight ends is by KO/TKO.
Fight length: goes the distance 39%, over 1.5 rounds 73%, over 2.5 rounds 56%.
Key factors
- Holloway's striking volume advantage
- Holloway's defensive edge
- McGregor's grappling control potential
Tale of the tape
| Max Holloway | Conor McGregor | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 24-9 | 10-5 |
| Age | 35 | 38 |
| Height | 5'11" (180 cm) | 5'8" (173 cm) |
| UFC fights | 33 | 15 |
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