Vince Morales vs Colby Thicknesse: Result and Prediction
UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates · May 2, 2026
Result
Colby Thicknesse defeated Vince Morales by Decision - Unanimous in round 3 (5:00) at UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates on May 2, 2026.
The FIGHT//AI model had Colby Thicknesse as the favourite at 55%, so the result went with the model.
Model prediction
The FIGHT//AI headline probability gave Colby Thicknesse a 55% chance to beat Vince Morales (Vince Morales 45%).
The betting market prices Vince Morales at 45% (+109) and Colby Thicknesse at 55% (-136), with the bookmaker margin removed.
Thicknesse's elite grappling and cardio should exploit Morales' recent struggles, leading to a potential finish via submission or decision in this clash of styles.
How the model expected it to end
Method of victory, either fighter: decision 52%, KO/TKO 27%, submission 21%. The most likely way this 3-round bantamweight fight ends is on the scorecards.
Fight length: goes the distance 52%.
Key factors
- Thicknesse's grappling edge
- Morales' striking limitations
- Recent form disparity
Tale of the tape
| Vince Morales | Colby Thicknesse | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 3-9 | 2-1 |
| Age | 36 | 27 |
| Height | 5'7" (170 cm) | 5'9" (175 cm) |
| UFC fights | 12 | 3 |
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