Francesco Nuzzi vs Xiao Long: Result and Prediction
UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song · August 29, 2026
Result
Francesco Nuzzi defeated Xiao Long by KO/TKO in round 1 (1:00) at UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song on August 29, 2026.
The FIGHT//AI model had Francesco Nuzzi at only 45%, so this was an upset against the model.
Model prediction
The FIGHT//AI headline probability gave Xiao Long a 55% chance to beat Francesco Nuzzi (Francesco Nuzzi 45%).
The betting market prices Francesco Nuzzi at 39% (+141) and Xiao Long at 61% (-176), with the bookmaker margin removed.
Our model is more positive on Francesco Nuzzi than the bookmakers: 53% for Francesco Nuzzi against the market's 39%. A gap like this is where value bets come from.
Nuzzi's elite striking and defensive prowess clash with Long's pressure and cardio, making for a potentially explosive matchup with high finish rates.
How the model expected it to end
Method of victory, either fighter: decision 43%, KO/TKO 42%, submission 15%. The most likely way this 3-round bantamweight fight ends is on the scorecards.
Fight length: goes the distance 43%.
Key factors
- Nuzzi's striking power
- Long's cardio advantage
- Nuzzi's defensive skills
Tale of the tape
| Francesco Nuzzi | Xiao Long | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-0 | 1-4 |
| Age | 30 | 28 |
| Height | 5'3" (160 cm) | 5'8" (173 cm) |
| UFC fights | 1 | 5 |
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