Raoni Barcelos vs Raul Rosas Jr.: Result and Prediction
UFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs. Barcelos · September 26, 2026
Result
Raul Rosas Jr. defeated Raoni Barcelos at UFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs. Barcelos on September 26, 2026.
The FIGHT//AI model had Raul Rosas Jr. as the favourite at 54%, so the result went with the model.
Model prediction
The FIGHT//AI headline probability gave Raul Rosas Jr. a 54% chance to beat Raoni Barcelos (Raoni Barcelos 46%).
The betting market prices Raoni Barcelos at 41% (+132) and Raul Rosas Jr. at 59% (-167), with the bookmaker margin removed.
Our model is more positive on Raoni Barcelos than the bookmakers: 49% for Raoni Barcelos against the market's 41%. A gap like this is where value bets come from.
In a clash of experience and youth, Barcelos’ striking volume and defensive prowess could smother the rising star Rosas Jr, whose stamina and inexperience might falter under pressure.
How the model expected it to end
Method of victory, either fighter: decision 55%, KO/TKO 26%, submission 20%. The most likely way this 5-round bantamweight fight ends is on the scorecards.
Fight length: goes the distance 55%, over 1.5 rounds 89%, over 2.5 rounds 79%.
Key factors
- Barcelos striking volume advantage
- Barcelos experience edge in cage IQ
- Barcelos cardio advantage in later rounds
Tale of the tape
| Raoni Barcelos | Raul Rosas Jr. | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 11-4 | 6-1 |
| Age | 39 | 22 |
| Height | 5'7" (170 cm) | 5'9" (175 cm) |
| UFC fights | 15 | 7 |
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