Rafael Estevam vs Ethyn Ewing: Result and Prediction
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan · April 4, 2026
Result
Ethyn Ewing defeated Rafael Estevam by KO/TKO in round 3 (1:44) at UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan on April 4, 2026.
The FIGHT//AI model had Ethyn Ewing at only 48%, so this was an upset against the model.
Model prediction
The FIGHT//AI headline probability gave Rafael Estevam a 52% chance to beat Ethyn Ewing (Ethyn Ewing 48%).
The betting market prices Rafael Estevam at 45% (+113) and Ethyn Ewing at 55% (-138), with the bookmaker margin removed.
Our model is more positive on Rafael Estevam than the bookmakers: 65% for Rafael Estevam against the market's 45%. A gap like this is where value bets come from.
In a clash of styles, Ewing's striking power meets Estevam's grappling prowess, making for a thrilling battle where endurance could tip the scales.
How the model expected it to end
Method of victory, either fighter: decision 56%, KO/TKO 35%, submission 9%. The most likely way this 3-round bantamweight fight ends is on the scorecards.
Fight length: goes the distance 56%.
Key factors
- Ewing's striking power
- Estevam's grappling control
- Cardio advantage for Estevam
Tale of the tape
| Rafael Estevam | Ethyn Ewing | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 3-1 | 2-0 |
| Age | 30 | 29 |
| Height | 5'8" (173 cm) | 5'8" (173 cm) |
| UFC fights | 4 | 2 |
The full interactive analysis – Fight Map, simulations, signals and AI picks – loads with JavaScript.