Esteban Ribovics vs Mateusz Gamrot: Result and Prediction
UFC 327: Prochazka vs. Ulberg · April 11, 2026
Result
Mateusz Gamrot defeated Esteban Ribovics by Submission in round 2 (4:19) at UFC 327: Prochazka vs. Ulberg on April 11, 2026.
The FIGHT//AI model had Mateusz Gamrot as the favourite at 57%, so the result went with the model.
Model prediction
The FIGHT//AI headline probability gave Mateusz Gamrot a 57% chance to beat Esteban Ribovics (Esteban Ribovics 43%).
The betting market prices Esteban Ribovics at 38% (+155) and Mateusz Gamrot at 62% (-185), with the bookmaker margin removed.
Our model is more positive on Esteban Ribovics than the bookmakers: 44% for Esteban Ribovics against the market's 38%. A gap like this is where value bets come from.
Gamrot's elite grappling meets Ribovics's relentless cardio, but the striking power differential could sway the fight in Gamrot's favor despite recent form shifts.
How the model expected it to end
Method of victory, either fighter: decision 60%, KO/TKO 27%, submission 13%. The most likely way this 3-round lightweight fight ends is on the scorecards.
Fight length: goes the distance 60%, over 1.5 rounds 88%, over 2.5 rounds 78%.
Key factors
- Gamrot's grappling control
- Ribovics's cardio advantage
- Striking power differential
Tale of the tape
| Esteban Ribovics | Mateusz Gamrot | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 5-3 | 9-5 |
| Age | 30 | 36 |
| Height | 5'10" (178 cm) | 5'10" (178 cm) |
| UFC fights | 8 | 14 |
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