Allan Nascimento vs Mitch Raposo: Result and Prediction
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Malott · April 18, 2026
Model prediction
The FIGHT//AI headline probability gave Allan Nascimento a 53% chance to beat Mitch Raposo (Mitch Raposo 47%).
The betting market prices Allan Nascimento at 63% (-192) and Mitch Raposo at 37% (+160), with the bookmaker margin removed.
Our model is more positive on Mitch Raposo than the bookmakers: 46% for Allan Nascimento against the market's 63%. A gap like this is where value bets come from.
In a clash of grappling prowess and striking threats, Nascimento's submission skills and recent form may outlast Raposo's knockout ambitions in this intriguing matchup.
How the model expected it to end
Method of victory, either fighter: decision 57%, submission 24%, KO/TKO 20%. The most likely way this 3-round flyweight fight ends is on the scorecards.
Fight length: goes the distance 57%, over 1.5 rounds 86%, over 2.5 rounds 76%.
Key factors
- Nascimento's grappling edge
- Raposo's KO potential
- Recent momentum for Nascimento
Tale of the tape
| Allan Nascimento | Mitch Raposo | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 4-2 | 2-2 |
| Age | 35 | 28 |
| Height | 5'9" (175 cm) | 5'5" (165 cm) |
| UFC fights | 6 | 4 |
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