Gauge Young vs Thiago Moises: Result and Prediction
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Malott · April 18, 2026
Result
Gauge Young defeated Thiago Moises by Decision - Split in round 3 (5:00) at UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Malott on April 18, 2026.
The FIGHT//AI model had Gauge Young as the favourite at 52%, so the result went with the model.
Model prediction
The FIGHT//AI headline probability gave Gauge Young a 52% chance to beat Thiago Moises (Thiago Moises 48%).
The betting market prices Gauge Young at 57% (-147) and Thiago Moises at 43% (+119), with the bookmaker margin removed.
Our model is more positive on Thiago Moises than the bookmakers: 42% for Gauge Young against the market's 57%. A gap like this is where value bets come from.
Young's striking power clashes with Moises's grappling, but Moises's cardio and control may dictate the pace in a closely contested bout.
How the model expected it to end
Method of victory, either fighter: submission 36%, KO/TKO 35%, decision 29%. The most likely way this 3-round lightweight fight ends is by submission.
Fight length: goes the distance 29%.
Key factors
- Young's striking power
- Moises's grappling control
- Cardio advantage for Moises
Tale of the tape
| Gauge Young | Thiago Moises | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-2 | 8-8 |
| Age | 26 | 32 |
| Height | 5'9" (175 cm) | 5'9" (175 cm) |
| UFC fights | 4 | 16 |
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