Youssef Zalal vs Aljamain Sterling: Result and Prediction

UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal · April 25, 2026

Result

Aljamain Sterling defeated Youssef Zalal by Decision - Unanimous in round 5 (5:00) at UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal on April 25, 2026.

The FIGHT//AI model had Aljamain Sterling at only 47%, so this was an upset against the model.

Model prediction

The FIGHT//AI headline probability gave Youssef Zalal a 53% chance to beat Aljamain Sterling (Aljamain Sterling 47%).

The betting market prices Youssef Zalal at 55% (-139) and Aljamain Sterling at 45% (+113), with the bookmaker margin removed.

Our model is more positive on Aljamain Sterling than the bookmakers: 49% for Youssef Zalal against the market's 55%. A gap like this is where value bets come from.

In a clash of styles, Sterling's elite grappling and cardio could exploit Zalal's striking limitations, leading to a potential submission or decision victory.

How the model expected it to end

Method of victory, either fighter: decision 55%, submission 25%, KO/TKO 20%. The most likely way this 5-round featherweight fight ends is on the scorecards.

Fight length: goes the distance 55%, over 1.5 rounds 87%, over 2.5 rounds 77%.

Key factors

• Sterling's elite defense
• Zalal's grappling vulnerability
• Sterling's cardio advantage

Tale of the tape

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