Andre Fili vs Vinicius Oliveira: Result and Prediction
UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi · June 20, 2026
Result
Vinicius Oliveira defeated Andre Fili by KO/TKO in round 2 (04:56:00) at UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi on June 20, 2026.
The FIGHT//AI model had Vinicius Oliveira as the favourite at 67%, so the result went with the model.
Model prediction
The FIGHT//AI headline probability gave Vinicius Oliveira a 67% chance to beat Andre Fili (Andre Fili 33%).
The betting market prices Andre Fili at 29% (+227) and Vinicius Oliveira at 71% (-303), with the bookmaker margin removed.
Our model is more positive on Andre Fili than the bookmakers: 35% for Andre Fili against the market's 29%. A gap like this is where value bets come from.
Fili’s extensive UFC experience faces off against Oliveira’s striking volume, creating a compelling clash where grappling may be necessary to weather a storm of heavy shots early on.
How the model expected it to end
Method of victory, either fighter: decision 60%, KO/TKO 28%, submission 12%. The most likely way this 3-round featherweight fight ends is on the scorecards.
Fight length: goes the distance 60%, over 1.5 rounds 87%, over 2.5 rounds 77%.
Key factors
- Fili's grappling control could neutralize Oliveira
- Oliveira's striking volume pressures Fili early
- Fili's experience may help in later rounds
Tale of the tape
| Andre Fili | Vinicius Oliveira | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 13-13 | 5-1 |
| Age | 36 | 30 |
| Height | 5'10" (178 cm) | 5'9" (175 cm) |
| UFC fights | 26 | 6 |
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