Nate Landwehr vs Cub Swanson: Result and Prediction

UFC 327: Prochazka vs. Ulberg · April 11, 2026

Result

Nate Landwehr defeated Cub Swanson by KO/TKO in round 1 (4:06) at UFC 327: Prochazka vs. Ulberg on April 11, 2026.

The FIGHT//AI model had Nate Landwehr at only 46%, so this was an upset against the model.

Model prediction

The FIGHT//AI headline probability gave Cub Swanson a 54% chance to beat Nate Landwehr (Nate Landwehr 46%).

The betting market prices Nate Landwehr at 50% (-109) and Cub Swanson at 50% (-113), with the bookmaker margin removed.

Our model is more positive on Cub Swanson than the bookmakers: 42% for Nate Landwehr against the market's 50%. A gap like this is where value bets come from.

Swanson's elite striking and recent momentum may overwhelm Landwehr, whose grappling may not be enough to neutralize the knockout threat.

How the model expected it to end

Method of victory, either fighter: decision 47%, KO/TKO 34%, submission 19%. The most likely way this 3-round featherweight fight ends is on the scorecards.

Fight length: goes the distance 47%, over 1.5 rounds 81%, over 2.5 rounds 68%.

Key factors

• Swanson's striking power
• Landwehr's grappling
• Swanson's recent form

Tale of the tape

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