Rongzhu vs Rafa Garcia: Result and Prediction
Noche UFC: Silva vs. Delgado · September 12, 2026
Result
Rongzhu defeated Rafa Garcia by Decision - Unanimous in round 3 (5:00) at Noche UFC: Silva vs. Delgado on September 12, 2026.
The FIGHT//AI model had Rongzhu at only 41%, so this was an upset against the model.
Model prediction
The FIGHT//AI headline probability gave Rafa Garcia a 59% chance to beat Rongzhu (Rongzhu 41%).
With Garcia's grappling prowess and experience set against Rongzhu's striking volume, this clash could hinge on whether Rongzhu can keep the fight standing while avoiding grappling exchanges.
How the model expected it to end
Method of victory, either fighter: decision 60%, KO/TKO 25%, submission 15%. The most likely way this 3-round lightweight fight ends is on the scorecards.
Fight length: goes the distance 60%, over 1.5 rounds 87%, over 2.5 rounds 77%.
Key factors
- Garcia grappling control advantage
- Rongzhu striking volume edge
- Garcia cardio advantage late
Tale of the tape
| Rongzhu | Rafa Garcia | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 4-3 | 7-5 |
| Age | – | 32 |
| Height | – | 5'7" (170 cm) |
| UFC fights | 7 | 12 |
The full interactive analysis – Fight Map, simulations, signals and AI picks – loads with JavaScript.