Stewart Nicoll vs Alessandro Costa: Result and Prediction
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan · April 4, 2026
Result
Alessandro Costa defeated Stewart Nicoll by KO/TKO in round 2 (4:56) at UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan on April 4, 2026.
The FIGHT//AI model had Alessandro Costa as the favourite at 65%, so the result went with the model.
Model prediction
The FIGHT//AI headline probability gave Alessandro Costa a 65% chance to beat Stewart Nicoll (Stewart Nicoll 35%).
The betting market prices Stewart Nicoll at 24% (+299) and Alessandro Costa at 76% (-427), with the bookmaker margin removed.
Our model is more positive on Stewart Nicoll than the bookmakers: 52% for Stewart Nicoll against the market's 24%. A gap like this is where value bets come from.
In a clash of styles, Nicoll's elite striking faces Costa's cardio and finishing threat, with both fighters needing to exploit each other's weaknesses for victory.
How the model expected it to end
Method of victory, either fighter: KO/TKO 56%, submission 22%, decision 22%. The most likely way this 3-round flyweight fight ends is by KO/TKO.
Fight length: goes the distance 22%.
Key factors
- Nicoll's elite striking
- Costa's cardio advantage
- Recent experience edge for Costa
Tale of the tape
| Stewart Nicoll | Alessandro Costa | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-4 | 5-3 |
| Age | 30 | 31 |
| Height | 5'5" (165 cm) | 5'5" (165 cm) |
| UFC fights | 4 | 8 |
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