Charles Jourdain vs Marlon Vera: Result and Prediction
UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2 · September 19, 2026
Result
Marlon Vera defeated Charles Jourdain by KO/TKO in round 3 (2:02) at UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2 on September 19, 2026.
The FIGHT//AI model had Marlon Vera at only 23%, so this was an upset against the model.
Model prediction
The FIGHT//AI headline probability gave Charles Jourdain a 77% chance to beat Marlon Vera (Marlon Vera 23%).
The betting market prices Charles Jourdain at 65% (-217) and Marlon Vera at 35% (+170), with the bookmaker margin removed.
Our model is more positive on Charles Jourdain than the bookmakers: 77% for Charles Jourdain against the market's 65%. A gap like this is where value bets come from.
Jourdain's rising momentum and striking volume clash with Vera's defensive prowess and seasoned fight IQ, setting the stage for a thrilling battle of youth versus experience.
How the model expected it to end
Method of victory, either fighter: decision 42%, KO/TKO 32%, submission 26%. The most likely way this 3-round bantamweight fight ends is on the scorecards.
Fight length: goes the distance 42%, over 1.5 rounds 83%, over 2.5 rounds 69%.
Key factors
- Jourdain striking volume advantage
- Vera defensive skills neutralize
- Vera experience edge in adjustments
Tale of the tape
| Charles Jourdain | Marlon Vera | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 9-8 | 16-11 |
| Age | 31 | 34 |
| Height | 5'9" (175 cm) | 5'8" (173 cm) |
| UFC fights | 17 | 27 |
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