Tatsuro Taira vs Joshua Van: Result and Prediction
UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland · May 9, 2026
Result
Joshua Van defeated Tatsuro Taira by KO/TKO in round 5 (1:32) at UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland on May 9, 2026.
The FIGHT//AI model had Joshua Van as the favourite at 50%, so the result went with the model.
Model prediction
The FIGHT//AI headline probability gave Tatsuro Taira a 50% chance to beat Joshua Van (Joshua Van 50%).
The betting market prices Tatsuro Taira at 59% (-162) and Joshua Van at 41% (+132), with the bookmaker margin removed.
Our model is more positive on Joshua Van than the bookmakers: 43% for Tatsuro Taira against the market's 59%. A gap like this is where value bets come from.
In a clash of styles, Van's striking volume and cardio could exploit Taira's grappling-heavy approach, leading to a potential finish or decision victory.
How the model expected it to end
Method of victory, either fighter: decision 51%, KO/TKO 30%, submission 19%. The most likely way this 5-round flyweight fight ends is on the scorecards.
Fight length: goes the distance 51%, over 1.5 rounds 81%, over 2.5 rounds 67%.
Key factors
- Van's elite striking volume
- Taira's grappling advantage
- Van's cardio superiority
Tale of the tape
| Tatsuro Taira | Joshua Van | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 8-2 | 11-1 |
| Age | 27 | 25 |
| Height | 5'7" (170 cm) | 5'5" (165 cm) |
| UFC fights | 10 | 12 |
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