Axel Sola vs Ismael Bonfim: Result and Prediction
UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov · July 25, 2026
Result
Axel Sola defeated Ismael Bonfim by Submission in round 1 (4:44) at UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov on July 25, 2026.
The FIGHT//AI model had Axel Sola as the favourite at 60%, so the result went with the model.
Model prediction
The FIGHT//AI headline probability gave Axel Sola a 60% chance to beat Ismael Bonfim (Ismael Bonfim 40%).
The betting market prices Axel Sola at 64% (-202) and Ismael Bonfim at 36% (+161), with the bookmaker margin removed.
Our model is more positive on Ismael Bonfim than the bookmakers: 55% for Axel Sola against the market's 64%. A gap like this is where value bets come from.
Sola's knockout power and elite defense may exploit Bonfim's recent struggles, leading to a decisive finish in this clash of styles.
How the model expected it to end
Method of victory, either fighter: decision 48%, KO/TKO 45%, submission 7%. The most likely way this 3-round lightweight fight ends is on the scorecards.
Fight length: goes the distance 48%.
Key factors
- Sola's striking power
- Elite defensive skills
- Recent form advantage
Tale of the tape
| Axel Sola | Ismael Bonfim | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 3-1 | 2-4 |
| Age | 29 | 31 |
| Height | 5'11" (180 cm) | 5'9" (175 cm) |
| UFC fights | 4 | 6 |
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