Marwan Rahiki vs Tommy McMillen: Result and Prediction
Noche UFC: Silva vs. Delgado · September 12, 2026
Result
Tommy McMillen defeated Marwan Rahiki by Decision - Unanimous in round 3 (5:00) at Noche UFC: Silva vs. Delgado on September 12, 2026.
The FIGHT//AI model had Tommy McMillen as the favourite at 54%, so the result went with the model.
Model prediction
The FIGHT//AI headline probability gave Tommy McMillen a 54% chance to beat Marwan Rahiki (Marwan Rahiki 46%).
The betting market prices Marwan Rahiki at 41% (+130) and Tommy McMillen at 59% (-163), with the bookmaker margin removed.
Our model is more positive on Marwan Rahiki than the bookmakers: 55% for Marwan Rahiki against the market's 41%. A gap like this is where value bets come from.
In a clash of elite strikers, Rahiki's knockout power and defensive prowess may exploit McMillen's grappling weaknesses, leading to a potential early finish.
How the model expected it to end
Method of victory, either fighter: KO/TKO 65%, decision 20%, submission 15%. The most likely way this 3-round featherweight fight ends is by KO/TKO.
Fight length: goes the distance 20%.
Key factors
- Rahiki's knockout power
- Elite defensive skills
- Grappling edge
Tale of the tape
| Marwan Rahiki | Tommy McMillen | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-1 | 3-0 |
| Age | 24 | 29 |
| Height | 5'10" (178 cm) | 6'0" (183 cm) |
| UFC fights | 3 | 3 |
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