Christian Edwards vs Rodolfo Bellato: Result and Prediction
UFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs. Barcelos · September 26, 2026
Result
Christian Edwards defeated Rodolfo Bellato at UFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs. Barcelos on September 26, 2026.
The FIGHT//AI model had Christian Edwards at only 40%, so this was an upset against the model.
Model prediction
The FIGHT//AI headline probability gave Rodolfo Bellato a 60% chance to beat Christian Edwards (Christian Edwards 40%).
The betting market prices Christian Edwards at 38% (+150) and Rodolfo Bellato at 62% (-189), with the bookmaker margin removed.
With Edwards battling a tough losing streak against Bellato's rising momentum and superior grappling, this clash could hinge on whether experience trumps youthful confidence in the cage.
How the model expected it to end
Method of victory, either fighter: KO/TKO 41%, decision 40%, submission 19%. The most likely way this 3-round light heavyweight fight ends is by KO/TKO.
Fight length: goes the distance 40%, over 1.5 rounds 72%, over 2.5 rounds 57%.
Key factors
- Edwards' experience in high-pressure moments
- Bellato's momentum from recent victory
- Bellato's grappling control advantage
Tale of the tape
| Christian Edwards | Rodolfo Bellato | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-1 | 2-1 |
| Age | 28 | 31 |
| Height | 6'5" (196 cm) | 6'3" (191 cm) |
| UFC fights | 1 | 3 |
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