Alexander Hernandez vs Rafa Garcia: Result and Prediction
UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal · April 25, 2026
Result
Rafa Garcia defeated Alexander Hernandez by Decision - Unanimous in round 3 (5:00) at UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal on April 25, 2026.
The FIGHT//AI model had Rafa Garcia as the favourite at 53%, so the result went with the model.
Model prediction
The FIGHT//AI headline probability gave Rafa Garcia a 53% chance to beat Alexander Hernandez (Alexander Hernandez 47%).
The betting market prices Alexander Hernandez at 54% (-132) and Rafa Garcia at 46% (+108), with the bookmaker margin removed.
Our model is more positive on Rafa Garcia than the bookmakers: 42% for Alexander Hernandez against the market's 54%. A gap like this is where value bets come from.
Garcia's elite grappling and strong defense could stifle Hernandez's striking, while both fighters' recent form adds intrigue to this matchup.
How the model expected it to end
Method of victory, either fighter: decision 55%, KO/TKO 31%, submission 14%. The most likely way this 3-round lightweight fight ends is on the scorecards.
Fight length: goes the distance 55%, over 1.5 rounds 84%, over 2.5 rounds 73%.
Key factors
- Garcia's elite grappling
- Hernandez's KO threat
- Recent winning streaks
Tale of the tape
| Alexander Hernandez | Rafa Garcia | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 10-8 | 7-5 |
| Age | 34 | 32 |
| Height | 5'9" (175 cm) | 5'7" (170 cm) |
| UFC fights | 18 | 12 |
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