Kody Steele vs Dom Mar Fan: Result and Prediction
UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates · May 2, 2026
Result
Kody Steele defeated Dom Mar Fan by Submission in round 1 (3:56) at UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates on May 2, 2026.
The FIGHT//AI model had Kody Steele as the favourite at 57%, so the result went with the model.
Model prediction
The FIGHT//AI headline probability gave Kody Steele a 57% chance to beat Dom Mar Fan (Dom Mar Fan 43%).
The betting market prices Kody Steele at 64% (-213) and Dom Mar Fan at 36% (+166), with the bookmaker margin removed.
Our model is more positive on Dom Mar Fan than the bookmakers: 47% for Kody Steele against the market's 64%. A gap like this is where value bets come from.
In a clash of styles, Mar Fan's relentless cardio and striking volume may exploit Steele's grappling focus, leading to a potential finish in the later rounds.
How the model expected it to end
Method of victory, either fighter: decision 43%, KO/TKO 35%, submission 22%. The most likely way this 3-round lightweight fight ends is on the scorecards.
Fight length: goes the distance 43%.
Key factors
- Mar Fan's cardio advantage
- Steele's grappling threat
- Striking power edge for Mar Fan
Tale of the tape
| Kody Steele | Dom Mar Fan | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Age | 31 | 26 |
| Height | 5'9" (175 cm) | 6'0" (183 cm) |
| UFC fights | 2 | 2 |
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