Esteban Ribovics vs Edson Barboza: Result and Prediction
UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry · August 15, 2026
Result
Esteban Ribovics defeated Edson Barboza by KO/TKO in round 2 (1:32) at UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry on August 15, 2026.
The FIGHT//AI model had Esteban Ribovics as the favourite at 60%, so the result went with the model.
Model prediction
The FIGHT//AI headline probability gave Esteban Ribovics a 60% chance to beat Edson Barboza (Edson Barboza 40%).
The betting market prices Esteban Ribovics at 82% (-654) and Edson Barboza at 18% (+429), with the bookmaker margin removed.
Our model is more positive on Edson Barboza than the bookmakers: 43% for Esteban Ribovics against the market's 82%. A gap like this is where value bets come from.
Ribovics brings a striking volume advantage, but can he handle Barboza's experience and defensive craft, or will the veteran turn the tide on his losing streak?
How the model expected it to end
Method of victory, either fighter: decision 53%, KO/TKO 35%, submission 12%. The most likely way this 3-round lightweight fight ends is on the scorecards.
Fight length: goes the distance 53%, over 1.5 rounds 84%, over 2.5 rounds 71%.
Key factors
- Ribovics striking volume advantage
- Barboza experience in high-pressure moments
- Ribovics grappling edge if fight goes down
Tale of the tape
| Esteban Ribovics | Edson Barboza | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 5-3 | 18-15 |
| Age | 30 | 41 |
| Height | 5'10" (178 cm) | 5'11" (180 cm) |
| UFC fights | 8 | 33 |
The full interactive analysis – Fight Map, simulations, signals and AI picks – loads with JavaScript.