Alexander Hernandez vs Rafael Dos Anjos: Result and Prediction
UFC 332: Silva vs. Wang · October 3, 2026
Result
Alexander Hernandez defeated Rafael Dos Anjos at UFC 332: Silva vs. Wang on October 3, 2026.
The FIGHT//AI model had Alexander Hernandez as the favourite at 60%, so the result went with the model.
Model prediction
The FIGHT//AI headline probability gave Alexander Hernandez a 60% chance to beat Rafael Dos Anjos (Rafael Dos Anjos 40%).
The betting market prices Alexander Hernandez at 70% (-288) and Rafael Dos Anjos at 30% (+212), with the bookmaker margin removed.
Our model is more positive on Rafael Dos Anjos than the bookmakers: 53% for Alexander Hernandez against the market's 70%. A gap like this is where value bets come from.
Hernandez rides a wave of momentum against the seasoned Dos Anjos, whose striking precision could expose Hernandez's late-fight cardio struggles, making this matchup a fascinating clash of youth versus experience.
How the model expected it to end
Method of victory, either fighter: decision 50%, KO/TKO 36%, submission 14%. The most likely way this 3-round lightweight fight ends is on the scorecards.
Fight length: goes the distance 50%, over 1.5 rounds 83%, over 2.5 rounds 70%.
Key factors
- Hernandez momentum advantage
- Dos Anjos striking precision
- Hernandez cardio in late rounds
Tale of the tape
| Alexander Hernandez | Rafael Dos Anjos | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 10-8 | 21-15 |
| Age | 34 | 42 |
| Height | 5'9" (175 cm) | 5'8" (173 cm) |
| UFC fights | 18 | 36 |
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