Dustin Stoltzfus vs Mansur Abdul-Malik: Result and Prediction
UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry · August 15, 2026
Result
Dustin Stoltzfus defeated Mansur Abdul-Malik by Submission in round 2 (4:25) at UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry on August 15, 2026.
The FIGHT//AI model had Dustin Stoltzfus at only 33%, so this was an upset against the model.
Model prediction
The FIGHT//AI headline probability gave Mansur Abdul-Malik a 67% chance to beat Dustin Stoltzfus (Dustin Stoltzfus 33%).
The betting market prices Dustin Stoltzfus at 17% (+444) and Mansur Abdul-Malik at 83% (-693), with the bookmaker margin removed.
Our model is more positive on Dustin Stoltzfus than the bookmakers: 40% for Dustin Stoltzfus against the market's 17%. A gap like this is where value bets come from.
With Stoltzfus's veteran experience clashing against Abdul-Malik's dynamic skill set and defensive prowess, this bout could reveal whether grit or talent prevails in the octagon.
How the model expected it to end
Method of victory, either fighter: decision 43%, KO/TKO 33%, submission 24%. The most likely way this 3-round middleweight fight ends is on the scorecards.
Fight length: goes the distance 43%, over 1.5 rounds 74%, over 2.5 rounds 60%.
Key factors
- Stoltzfus experience advantage
- Abdul-Malik defensive metrics edge
- Abdul-Malik submission threat
Tale of the tape
| Dustin Stoltzfus | Mansur Abdul-Malik | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 4-7 | 3-2 |
| Age | 35 | 29 |
| Height | 5'11" (180 cm) | 6'2" (188 cm) |
| UFC fights | 11 | 5 |
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