Michael Oliveira vs Oban Elliott: Result and Prediction
UFC Fight Night: Medic vs. Rodriguez · August 1, 2026
Result
Michael Oliveira defeated Oban Elliott by KO/TKO in round 1 (1:49) at UFC Fight Night: Medic vs. Rodriguez on August 1, 2026.
The FIGHT//AI model had Michael Oliveira as the favourite at 56%, so the result went with the model.
Model prediction
The FIGHT//AI headline probability gave Michael Oliveira a 56% chance to beat Oban Elliott (Oban Elliott 44%).
The betting market prices Michael Oliveira at 75% (-387) and Oban Elliott at 25% (+274), with the bookmaker margin removed.
Our model is more positive on Oban Elliott than the bookmakers: 20% for Michael Oliveira against the market's 75%. A gap like this is where value bets come from.
Elliott's cardio and defensive skills may exploit Oliveira's inexperience, while both fighters aim for a finish in a clash of striking styles.
How the model expected it to end
Method of victory, either fighter: decision 42%, KO/TKO 35%, submission 23%. The most likely way this 3-round welterweight fight ends is on the scorecards.
Fight length: goes the distance 42%.
Key factors
- Elliott's cardio advantage
- Oliveira's fresh approach
- Elliott's striking defense
Tale of the tape
| Michael Oliveira | Oban Elliott | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-0 | 3-3 |
| Age | 29 | 28 |
| Height | – | 5'11" (180 cm) |
| UFC fights | 1 | 6 |
The full interactive analysis – Fight Map, simulations, signals and AI picks – loads with JavaScript.