Ernesta Kareckaite vs Melissa Gatto: Result and Prediction
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan · October 10, 2026
Model prediction
The FIGHT//AI headline probability gave Melissa Gatto a 53% chance to beat Ernesta Kareckaite (Ernesta Kareckaite 47%).
The betting market prices Ernesta Kareckaite at 48% (-104) and Melissa Gatto at 52% (-121), with the bookmaker margin removed.
Experience Factor collides with striking volume & accuracy — a genuine toss-up where game plan execution decides everything.
How the model expected it to end
Method of victory, either fighter: decision 55%, KO/TKO 33%, submission 12%. The most likely way this 3-round women's flyweight fight ends is on the scorecards.
Fight length: goes the distance 55%, over 1.5 rounds 87%, over 2.5 rounds 76%.
Key factors
- Melissa Gatto experience factor advantage
- Ernesta Kareckaite striking volume & accuracy advantage
- Melissa Gatto striking power differential advantage
Tale of the tape
| Ernesta Kareckaite | Melissa Gatto | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-2 | 3-3 |
| Age | 28 | 31 |
| Height | 5'9" (175 cm) | 5'5" (165 cm) |
| UFC fights | 3 | 6 |
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