Derrick Lewis vs Josh Hokit: Result and Prediction
UFC Freedom 250: Topuria vs. Gaethje · June 14, 2026
Result
Josh Hokit defeated Derrick Lewis by KO/TKO in round 2 (04:09:00) at UFC Freedom 250: Topuria vs. Gaethje on June 14, 2026.
The FIGHT//AI model had Josh Hokit as the favourite at 65%, so the result went with the model.
Model prediction
The FIGHT//AI headline probability gave Josh Hokit a 65% chance to beat Derrick Lewis (Derrick Lewis 35%).
The betting market prices Derrick Lewis at 22% (+322) and Josh Hokit at 78% (-455), with the bookmaker margin removed.
Our model is more positive on Derrick Lewis than the bookmakers: 41% for Derrick Lewis against the market's 22%. A gap like this is where value bets come from.
Hokit’s elite striking volume and defensive skills may exploit Lewis’s recent downturn, making for a compelling matchup as both fighters look to assert dominance in the octagon.
How the model expected it to end
Method of victory, either fighter: KO/TKO 50%, decision 38%, submission 12%. The most likely way this 3-round heavyweight fight ends is by KO/TKO.
Fight length: goes the distance 38%, over 1.5 rounds 75%, over 2.5 rounds 62%.
Key factors
- Hokit's striking volume
- Lewis's cardio advantage
- Hokit's recent momentum
Tale of the tape
| Derrick Lewis | Josh Hokit | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 20-12 | 4-0 |
| Age | 42 | 29 |
| Height | 6'3" (191 cm) | 6'1" (185 cm) |
| UFC fights | 32 | 4 |
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