Marcin Tybura vs Aleksandar Rakic: Result and Prediction
UFC Fight Night: Medic vs. Rodriguez · August 1, 2026
Result
Aleksandar Rakic defeated Marcin Tybura by Decision in round 3 at UFC Fight Night: Medic vs. Rodriguez on August 1, 2026.
The FIGHT//AI model had Aleksandar Rakic as the favourite at 64%, so the result went with the model.
Model prediction
The FIGHT//AI headline probability gave Aleksandar Rakic a 64% chance to beat Marcin Tybura (Marcin Tybura 36%).
The betting market prices Marcin Tybura at 25% (+279) and Aleksandar Rakic at 75% (-387), with the bookmaker margin removed.
Our model is more positive on Marcin Tybura than the bookmakers: 42% for Marcin Tybura against the market's 25%. A gap like this is where value bets come from.
Tybura enters with the experience edge and momentum from a recent win, but Rakic's striking power and improving skill set could expose any defensive lapses and shift the fight dramatically.
How the model expected it to end
Method of victory, either fighter: decision 55%, KO/TKO 32%, submission 13%. The most likely way this 3-round heavyweight fight ends is on the scorecards.
Fight length: goes the distance 55%, over 1.5 rounds 84%, over 2.5 rounds 73%.
Key factors
- Tybura's experience in high-pressure moments
- Rakic's striking power could exploit Tybura
- Tybura's cardio advantage in later rounds
Tale of the tape
| Marcin Tybura | Aleksandar Rakic | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 14-11 | 7-5 |
| Age | 41 | 35 |
| Height | 6'3" (191 cm) | 6'5" (196 cm) |
| UFC fights | 25 | 12 |
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